Judgment and Decision Making

Judgment and Decision Making
[Instructor Name]
[Class and Section Number]
Introduction
Bounded Rationality –
Cognitive limitations
prevent humans from
being fully rational
Biases – Mistakes that
influence judgment
What is a Rational Decision?
What is a Rational Decision?
Rational Decision Making
 Define the problem
 Identify criteria necessary
to judge
 Weigh the criteria
 Generate alternatives
 Rate each alternative
 Compute optimal decision
Biases: Overconfidence
Overconfidence – The bias to have greater
confidence in your judgment than is warranted
based on a rational assessment.
Biases: Anchoring
Anchoring – The bias to be affected by an initial
anchor, even if the anchor is arbitrary, and to
insufficiently adjust our judgments away from it.
10 – 100 – 200?
The size of your anchor does matter.
Biases: Framing
Framing – The bias to be systematically affected
by the way in which information is presented.
 Positive or negative?
 Influence of frame
Biases in Decision Making
Contemporary Developments
Bounded Willpower –
We give greater weight to
present concerns over
future ones.
Contemporary Developments
Bounded Self-interest – Our own behavior is
influenced because we care about the outcomes
of others.
Contemporary Developments
Bounded Ethicality – Our
ethics are limited in ways
that we don’t realize.
Bounded Awareness –
There is a broad array of
focusing failures that
affect our judgments.
Fixing Our Decision Making
System 1 System 2
Fixing Our Decision Making
Fixing Our Decision Making
4.25%  99.98%
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Memory
[Instructor Name]
[Class and Section Number]
Introduction to Memory
Working Memory
Working Memory – The ability to hold information
in mind for a brief time and work with it.
Semantic Memory
Semantic Memory – Your storehouse of more or
less permanent knowledge.
Episodic Memory
Episodic Memory –
The ability to
remember the
episodes of your life.
Collective Memory
Collective Memory – The kind of memory that
people in a group share (whether family,
community, schoolmates, citizens of a state or a
country).
Stages of Memory: Encoding
Encoding – The initial experience
of perceiving and learning events.
Distinctiveness
Recoding
Recoding – Taking
information from one form
and converting it in a way
that makes sense to us.
Please
Excuse
My
Dear
Aunt
Sally
Stages of Memory: Storage
Memory Trace (engram) – The change in the nervous
system that represents our experience.
Consolidation – The neural changes that occur over
time to create the memory trace of an experience.
Storage
Stages of Memory: Retrieval
Encoding Specificity Principle – The effectiveness of
retrieval cues.
Available – All information stored in memory.
Accessible – The information we are able to retrieve.
Measuring Retrieval
Production Tests
 Generation of studied info
 Example = Free Recall
Recognition Tests
 Selection of studied info from
aggregate info
 Example = Multiple Choice
True/False
Putting It All Together
Appendix A: Studying Example
Appendix A: Studying Example
Distributed Practice
Appendix B: Chunking
WHAT DO YOU REMEMBER?
I am going to show you a series of
numbers. Without writing them down,
remember as many as you can.
GROUP A
4 8 3 7 9 2 5 1 6 1 0 0 1
What do you remember?
GROUP B
483 792 516 1001
What do you remember?
483 792 516 1001
4 8 3 7 9 2 5 1 6 1 0 0 1
What do you remember?
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Eyewitness Testimony
[Instructor Name]
[Class and Section Number]
What is Eyewitness Testimony?
What is Eyewitness Testimony?
Misinformation
Misinformation effect – Occurs when incorrect
information obtained after an event
contaminates our memory of that event.
Misinformation
Identifying Perpetrators
Factors Increasing Errors
 Poor Vision
 Poor Viewing Conditions
 Stress
 Short Viewing Time
 Delay
 Different Race
Kinds of Memory Biases
Tip-of-the-Tongue Effect Schemata
False Memory
False Memories – Large memory errors in which
events are recalled that never took place.
Conclusion
 Witness Interviews
 Lineup Construction
 Educating Jury Members
 Educating Other Assessors
Image Credits
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Intelligence
[Instructor Name]
[Class Section Number]
Defining Intelligence
Intelligence – An individual’
s
cognitive capability, including the
ability to acquire, process, and
recall information.
Social factors theory
General Intelligence – “g”
Measuring Intelligence
Francis Galton
 Crude measurement
 Factor exploration
Alfred Binet
 Classroom children
Theodore Simon
 Partnered with Binet
 First IQ Test
Galton
Binet
Measuring Intelligence
 Intelligence
Quotient
 Stanford-Binet  Weschler Adult
Intelligence Scale
(WAIS)
Measuring Intelligence
 Standardized  Normed  Flynn Effect
Types of Intelligence
Carroll’s Model
 Fluid
 Crystallized
Types of Intelligence
Gardner’s Theory: Multiple Intelligence
Logic-math Visual-spatial Music-rhythm Verbal-linguistic
Bodily-kinesthetic Interpersonal Intrapersonal Naturalistic
Types of Intelligence
Emotional Intelligence
Types of Intelligence
Mind Set > Intellectual Abilities
Correlates of Intelligence
 Genetics
 Positive attitude
 Gender differences?
 Unequal representation
 Stereotype threat
 Bias
Correlates of Intelligence
Who’s smarter?
Correlates of Intelligence
Female
 Fine Motor Skill
 Acquired Knowledge
 Reading Comprehension
 Decoding Non-verbal
Expression
 Grades
Male
 Fluid reasoning related
to math/science
 Perceptual tasks (e.g.,
moving objects)
 Transformations in
working memory
Conclusion
 Theories continue to develop
 Different types
 Several influences
Image Credits
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